The Growth of Robot Farming

Transcript

By 2050, according to projections from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the global demand for food will increase by 70 percent.

In addition to population growth, the migration of that population to cities is driving that demand. According to the UN's World Urbanization Prospects report, in 1950, only 30 percent of the world's population lived in cities. By 2014, the urban share of the population had climbed to 54 percent, and by 2050, it is expected to rise to 66 percent.

Put another way, the number of people living in cities - and away from the source of production of food - grew from 746 million in 1950, to 3.9 billion in 2014, and is projected to reach 6.4 billion in 2050. Specifically, the UN expects 404 million more urban dwellers in India, 292 million more in China, and 212 million more in Nigeria.

At the same time, the agricultural production of food is constantly at risk from contaminants like E. coli, listeria, and salmonella. Even in a developed country like the United States, where sanitation protocols are among the best in the world, 200,000 Americans are afflicted with food poisoning every day, according to The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

During one study period, from 1990 to 2002, 11 percent of produce-related food-poisoning outbreaks were caused by lettuce, while outbreaks from salad accounted for 28 percent, according to the Center for Science in the Public Interest.

More recently, the FDA banned shipments of cilantro from Mexico after it determined that hundreds of Americans were sickened with cyclosporiasis, a disease caused by a parasite.5 The FDA's investigation found human feces and toilet paper among the crops at eight of eleven farms and packing houses in the state of Puebla.

Clearly, farming will need to become both more productive and less vulnerable to human contamination. Fortunately, there's a solution to both problems: vertical farming with robots.

The concept of vertical farms - in which crops are grown indoors, using artificial light, on several layers of racks stacked on top of each other - has been around for at least a decade. Proponents of vertical farming contend that it provides locally grown produce to city dwellers even in areas where the climate is cold in winter.

1. Food safety: While human and animal waste can contaminate crops grown on conventional farms, food grown in indoor farms can be monitored constantly and kept protected from bacteria like coli.
2. Less water usage: Vertical farming recycles water so it uses up to 97 percent less water, according to com. In a vertical farm, plants are grown using either the hydroponic method, with their roots soaking in water, or with the aeroponic technique, in which their roots dangle in the air while water and nutrients are sprayed on their roots. The nutrients come from fish that live in tanks at the farm; the wastes from the fish are filtered as the water is recycled and then used as fertilizer. The water then flows back into the fish tanks, so the same water is used again and again. Currently, almost 40 percent of the produce consumed in the U.S. is grown in water-deprived areas like California's Central Valley and Mexico, according to Business Insider Australia, so saving water is a major benefit of vertical farming.
3. Elimination of chemicals: Because the plants are grown indoors, there's no need for pesticides or weed-killers.
4. Less spoilage. Lettuce and other fragile plants are prone to wilting when they are transported thousands of miles by truck. Roughly 50 percent of the baby spinach that is harvested gets thrown away because it becomes inedible before it reaches the consumer, according to Fast Company. Vertical farms tend to deliver their produce within a radius of 200 miles or less.

The four companies at the forefront of the vertical farming industry are FarmedHere and AeroFarms in the U.S., and Spread and Mirai in Japan.

FarmedHere, in Bedford Park, Illinois, is the largest vertical farm in the U.S. Currently at 90,000 square feet, it plans to expand to 150,000 square feet by the end of the year, according to the Associated Press.

Workers at FarmedHere plant the seeds for growing lettuce, kale, basil, arugula, and mint. Then they harvest and package the crops for sale at supermarkets like Whole Foods and Mariano's Fresh Markets in Chicago and its suburbs.

The company expects to replace most of its human workers with robots in its next farm, which is expected to open by the end of the year.

AeroFarms, located in Newark, New Jersey, opened a vertical farm last year with $30 million in investment capital from Goldman Sachs and Prudential. It plans to grow 2 million pounds of baby greens each year. Fast Company reports that AeroFarms has plans to open 25 more farms by the end of the decade.10

Spread grws 21,000 heads of lettuce per day at its vertical farm known as the Kameoka Plant. Spread uses a small staff of human workers to plant and harvest the lettuce, which is sold under the brand name Vegetus in 2,000 Japanese supermarkets, according to its website.

Spread expects to produce 30,000 heads of lettuce per day, while slashing labor costs by 50 percent. The only remaining human workers will supervise the robots and monitor sensors that will indicate if a crop is growing as quickly as expected.

If this model is successful, Spread will open Vegetable Factories in other countries, according to Tech Insider.

Meanwhile, a 25,000-square-foot vertical farm called Marai, in Tagajo, is producing 10,000 heads of lettuce daily. As EcoWatch.com reports, Marai's output is 100 times more per square foot than traditional agricultural methods.12 Half of Marai's production is handled by humans, who are responsible for such steps as harvesting the lettuce. However, the company's founder expects that robots will soon take over the tasks of seeding, transplanting, harvesting, and packaging the product.

Mirai plans to bring vertical farming to Hong Kong and Russia in the short term, and to eventually expand across the globe.

Based on this trend, we offer the following forecasts:

First, the number of foodborne illness outbreaks will be sharply reduced as robotic farming accounts for a growing share of vulnerable crops.

Lettuce, cilantro, and alfalfa sprouts, all of which have been linked to widespread cases of food poisoning, could be grown under sanitary conditions in indoor farms, free of contamination from humans and livestock.

Although proponents of vertical farming claim that their crops will eventually cost consumers less because of lower production costs once economies of scale are realized, we believe that consumers are actually likely to pay more for certified "hygienic" food products, just as they now willingly pay a premium for organic food.

Second, vertical farming will ultimately complement, not replace, traditional farming.

Tremendous progress has already been made in boosting the productivity of conventional farms, and for hardy crops like corn and wheat, it is simply cheaper to grow them in rows using the sun, vast acres of land, and agricultural robots, instead of moving production under a roof. Similarly, crops like avocados and oranges need more room and more time to grow than does a crop like lettuce or basil, so growing them indoors would be too costly.

Third, automation will improve the economics of vertical farming.

For example, FoodManufacturing.com suggests that engineers could automate the process of delivering nutrients, oxygen, and carbon dioxide to reduce waste and avoid errors. Also, as is the case with all forms of automation, robots working 24 hours a day, seven days a week won't need time off for sick days or holidays.

Fourth, one big challenge that will need to be overcome for this business model to be viable is the cost of artificial lighting in indoor farms.

According to FoodManufacturing.com, lighting costs represent between one-quarter and one-third of all operational costs for vertical farmers. One promising approach is to replace fluorescent lights with blinking LEDs that emit short bursts of light that allow plants to absorb more photons in a shorter amount of time.

EcoWatch.com notes that General Electric partnered with Mirai in developing LEDs that reduce power consumption by 40 percent and increase harvest yields by 50 percent. Because the plants grow in half the time, Mirai was able to recoup its investment in the LED lights.

According to the Associated Press, some vertical farmers are designing buildings with skylights so they can combine natural light with artificial light in an attempt to lower costs.15 Which approach is the best solution?

The Associated Press quotes Dickson Despommier, a retired Columbia University microbiologist and author of The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century, who concluded that, "A lot of [farmers] will tuck their head under their wings and say, 'Wait and see.' In another two or three years, this will shake out. And we'll see which systems work, and which don't."

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