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Flying Cars Surge ForwardTechnology Briefing |
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TranscriptEver since, automobiles and aviation emerged at the dawn of the 20th century, enthusiasts have dreamed of safe, affordable “flying cars” which could reduce trips that take hours on the ground to minutes in the air, thereby improving productivity and reducing congestion. In those early days, aircraft pioneer Glenn Curtis and automobile magnate Henry Ford both put forward prototypes of flying cars, but neither the technology nor the consumers were ready for this solution. Since then, The Jetsons introduced the flying car idea to impressionable young Baby Boomers and inventor Paul Moller built several liquid-fueled prototypes of his so-called SkyCar between 1963 and 2000. Meanwhile, the Trends Editors tracked the convergence of avionics, propulsion, regulations and public perceptions that would be required to create an industry eco-system for what we called the “Personal Aviation Vehicle” (or PAV). But, despite incremental advances on key components of the system, overall progress seemed glacial and it was easy to dismiss this nascent industry as nothing but “a sci-fi fantasy.” Then, that all began to change when a NASA engineer named Mark Moore published a landmark whitepaper just four years ago. That “intellectual spark” triggered an explosive chain reaction of innovation that now seems poised to transform the way we commute for the first time since the Interstate Highway boom of the 1950s. Suddenly, after decades of failed projects and false starts, a new class of vehicles and supporting infrastructure is finally emerging that could turn these dreams into reality by transforming the way people and cargo are moved within and between cities. These aircraft are known as Electric (or hybrid-electric) Vertical Take-Off and Landing vehicles (or eVTOLs). Unlike other modes of transportation, they don’t require roads, waterways, rails, bridges, tunnels, runways, or even liquid fuel. And unlike helicopters, they are designed to be low-cost, quiet, simple-to-operate, nearly crash-proof and relatively low-maintenance. Nowhere was the accelerating progress on clearer display than at the Uber Elevate 2019 conference held June 11th and12th in Washington, DC. For those not fortunate enough to attend in-person, the conference was live-streamed and archived on YouTube. (Follow these links to experience all 19 hours from: June 11 and June 12.) Participants included Airbus, Embraer, Boeing, Bell, AT&T and a wide range of well-funded new ventures from around the world. Another recent milestone was the roll-out of Transport Up, a news web site dedicated to the eVTOL industry. As of this writing, TransportUP's Comprehensive Market Survey included 92 eVTOL aircraft at various stages of development, divided into 4 categories:
The sudden mainstreaming of this industry is also reflected in increased press coverage, as well as serious attention from venture capitalists, academia and top-tier consultants. For instance, tte Consulting recently published a five-part series on this evolving industry and its implications. Notably, the Deloitte research identified six challenges and/or barriers that need to be overcome before the wholesale adoption of eVTOL aircraft becomes practical. These include regulations, technology maturity, infrastructure, air traffic management, safety, and psychological barriers. Because of the need to quickly achieve economies of scale and standardization, the most promising commercialization efforts have focused on a high-utilization, ridesharing business model aimed at urban areas with long commute times and high traffic volumes; that business model is known as “Mobility As A Service” (or MAAS.) At least two separate efforts are underway to deploy MAAS. The first is Uber Elevate, based on Uber’s proven automotive ridesharing platform. The other is Lilium a well-funded German start-up.
Notably, overcoming psychological barriers, will prove crucial in shaping the eVTOL industry, as consumers are at the core of the elevated-mobility ecosystem. And, given the limited exposure this industry has received so far, it is not surprising that consumers are ambivalent. Deloitte questioned a global group of 10,000 consumers about their perceptions of fully autonomous eVTOL aircraft with respect to safety and perceived utility. Nearly half of the respondents viewed “autonomous aerial passenger vehicles” as a potentially viable solution to roadway congestion. However, 80 percent of the total either believes that these vehicles “will not be safe” or are currently uncertain that they will be safe. As Deloitte observed, “eVTOL aircraft will become part of the new mobility ecosystem only when creators and operators convince skeptical consumers that airborne vehicles are both useful and safe.” Shaping consumer attitudes will be the joint responsibility of regulators, creators, and operators of this new breed of aircraft. Turning to technology maturity, several complex issues still need to be addressed before eVTOL air taxis and cargo transports take to the skies. These persistent challenges are primarily related to propulsion, situational-awareness systems, advanced collision-avoidance systemes, and efficient energy management systems. Deloitte’s research suggests that the emerging eVTOL industry faces five major technological barriers which will likely require the kind of group effort being coordinated by Uber. Consider the five top technology issue identified by Deloitte.
First, parallel development of all components of “Mobility As A Service” will enable the industry to achieve initial commercialization by 2025. In July, Uber launched ridesharing service using helicopters between Manhattan and JFK Airport. Boeing, Lillium, Airbus, and China’s eHang all have flying prototypes. And full-scale internal combustion versions of Jaunt’s eVTOL vehicle have been flying at speeds up to 180 MPH since 2005. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (or EASA) recently released preliminary guidance to help eVTOL companies achieve certification in Europe, while key local and Federal Government representatives described American regulatory progress during Uber Elevate 2019. Uber has also announced plans to test Uber Elevate in Los Angeles, Dallas and Melbourne (Australia), enabling planning for vertiport and related infrastructure. —The parallel multifaceted development of regulations, systems, vehicles, and business models will ensure technical viability and create consumer acceptance ahead of testing in 2023. This will be followed by a mass roll-out in the 2025-to-2030 timeframe. Second, for much of the 2020s eVTOLS will have human pilots. This will not only be a career opportunity for many people, but it will eliminate anxiety related to fully autonomous systems and expedite certification. In all but the rarest of situations, these pilots will simply monitor conditions and step-in should a problem arise. And Third, the 2024 Olympics in Paris will be an important showcase for eVTOLs. The Airport authority and the regional transportation authority in Paris have teamed up with Airbus to provide visitors to the 2024 Paris Olympics with VTOL taxi service straight from the airport to tournament sites. Currently, to get to the city center, visitors arriving at Charles de Gaulle International Airport have to take a costly taxi, a 35-minute train, or a bus that could take up to 90 minutes. A new express train designed to cut congestion and travel time between the airport and the city center has been delayed until after the Games take place. To minimize initial infrastructural development and financial burden, an existing helicopter corridor will be used to test the transportation system. The CityAirbus is one of the prototypes for the Paris 2024 Olympics. It has a cruising speed of speed of 120 km/h while flying autonomous on fixed routes. It will be initially operated by a pilot. While being a useful “proof of concept,” its goal of dispatching one vehicle every six minutes from Charles de Gaulle International Airport will not meaningfully impact traffic for the Olympics. |
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